Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (the country's real political chief) has warned that the price of oil could rise sharply if Iran is not halted. Caught by who? He didn't say it, but obviously he was thinking of the US. As is well known, on September 14 Iran launched a drone and missile strike on two Saudi refineries, raising the price of crude for just a few days. Iran denies and says the attacks were launched from Yemen by the "Houthi" rebels, but it does not seem a credible version.
The fact is that, despite Trump's warlike rhetoric, the US has so far not triggered any military retaliation against Iran. And Trump was even willing to speak with Iranian President Roahni on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. . Rohani – pressured by the hard wing of the Iranian regime – refused. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran will only take place when the US lift sanctions on Iran. However, the Iranians have accelerated uranium enrichment in response to the US exit from the 2015 nuclear deal.
Trump realized that getting his country into new warrior adventures abroad would not favor his reelection in November next year. Look at Trump's relations with North Korea: after threats of terrible attacks against Kim Jong Un country, nothing has progressed towards peace, but Trump's threats have disappeared…
Attacks on oil facilities have shown Saudi Arabia's vulnerability. And the other Saudi "friend", still Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, is politically weakened.
On the other hand, the public offering of shares of giant Saudi oil company Aramco – a priority of bin Salman – is not going well. Foreign investors have been alarmed by the situation and bin Salman is now trying to force Saudi millionaires to buy Aramco shares.
That is, Trump's big initial bets on allying with Saudi Arabia and Israel against Iran did not bear fruit. The Saudis are the target of destructive attacks, apparently from Iran, with no response. At the same time, bin Salman's decision four years ago to involve his country in the civil war in Yemen has been disastrous. Hence some Saudi attempts to reach a ceasefire in Yemen are outlined.
The situation in the Middle East is more dangerous. And oil will soar if there is a new war there. At a time when fracking oil production in the US is declining…
Fuel prices fell in Portugal last Monday. But there is no guarantee that crude will not appear dramatically in the near future.
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